Thursday I was up early, and standing on the back porch about the time the Sun hit the tops of the trees. Then I heard things hitting the ground. I looked up, and could see this tree

Dropping cones by the dozen. Leaves were coming off the trees next to it. That’s a mature Douglas Fir, and looks to top out around 120′. Apparently today was the day for it to reproduce.

My experience with conifers is that they are trashy trees. They are always dropping things: leaves (needles), branches, cones, bark, something. Deciduous trees tend to do their shedding on schedule, and you can jump in the leaf pile. I had not known that trees can drop their cones on one day. I’d imagined it as more of a weeks or months-long process.

Because there were so many cones, a couple conveniently landed on the porch.

The weight is in grams

Not especially large or heavy, but if one hit you from 100′ up, you’d notice. Just for fun, a little math shows that from a height of 100′ the cone would strike the ground at nearly 60 mph, with a force of about 4.5 foot-pounds. This seems reasonable from observation. So unless you looked up at the wrong moment, and it hit you in the eye, it probably wouldn’t injure you.

Attack of the Cones

When I brought the cone into the house, I flashed on a horror movie in which an ancient tree wakes from a 500-year slumber and drops it’s cones at first light. The unwitting victims bring a cone into the house, and chaos ensues. Roger Corman would have been all over that.

Black Masks

I have noticed that the politician’s mask color of choice appears to be black, which, as the traditional color of mourning in the West, I think is highly appropriate. I was disappointed that President Trump does not have the Presidential Seal on his mask. Come on, man. You have access to the best graphics artists on the planet. Look at hockey goalies.

You ever notice how many dystopias have people wearing breathing apparatus? Something wrong with the air, or a pervasive virus. Ever notice how many dystopias are covered in graffiti? A symbol of societal breakdown employed in the movie Joker. Ever notice how many of the cities that answer that description are, and have been, run by the Democratic Party?

Portland, Oregon, checks all the boxes. The city has been trashed. I used to like going into Portland, but no longer. I have talked to an increasing number of people, many long-time residents, who have the same view. It’s just not a nice place, anymore. And city government is complicit in it, going back to the 2011 Occupy Wall Street activities. Government allowed activists, and active violence, to occupy downtown Portland. And the same government was elected. So now we have people who feel entitled to ruin a city they don’t live in. I don’t live in Portland, either, but it is part of ‘home’.

There is graffiti everywhere in Portland. Much of it in the last three years. It’s a trashy look, and the city doesn’t seem to care. The mayor has been seen marching with activists, which is not something a representative and chief administrator of the city should be doing. You elect children; you get child-like activities. Why would you live here?

 

Some years ago I had a job in Ft. Polk, Louisiana. The location allowed trips to New Orleans (Nawlins), and on one trip we had the project manager along. A native Texan married to a Louisianan, she related how corrupt the Louisiana State government was. Tens of millions of dollars had ‘disappeared’ from the New Orleans school district. She laughed it off, as corrupt politics is business-as-usual in Louisiana. And not surprised, as I read Richard White’s Kingfish along with everyone else in high school.

Fast-forward to Hurricane Katrina, and corrupt government isn’t so much a laughing matter. You can look it up. And so we have a similar problem now.

Because facing a pandemic, successfully, requires united effort. Also some metrics, but we’ll leave that alone. There is a bit of a problem in that Progressives have spent decades preaching division, and now that unity is needed, there’s none to be had. How can you tell people to unite in common cause, when you have based your power on division? Why should I care about someone who makes my life more difficult?

And that’s a corrupted system. One in which even the supporters don’t care. It’s not that the system as designed is flawed, but if you add stuff and add stuff, the system will collapse. And that’s kind of where we’re at. You can see the pieces crumbling off. Tower of Babel and all.

A nation is constituted to unify people to a common cause. The American common cause of liberty and freedom is still alive; you just have to look to protests in Hong Kong to see them. Currently, there’s a paucity of the same in their homeland.

Driving Around

Escape!

(Also an excellent Journey album).

I had the Brand ‘Y’ tires on the Mazda replaced with Brand ‘G’ (not the blimp folks). As the tires were under the 30-day guarantee, it was a straight swap. The new tires have a higher speed rating, so stiffer sidewalls.

Yes.

No flexing in corners. The suspension isn’t fighting the tires. The car is much more predictable. I’m still figuring out where the suspension/tire limit is, and a cautious experiment on public roads, but certainly in the ‘fun’ zone.

 

 

 

 

As of 24 June, the Governor of Oregon has proclaimed that masks shall be worn in indoor public places.

The Governor’s Guidance here.

My opinion here:

And just to be clear, I am wearing a mask in indoor public places. Fortunately, I don’t have to go into them much. I’ve argued that masking is a fear-response, and makes people anxious and nervous. An entire planet of anxious, nervous people is a less stable situation than normal, and there are going to be major social problems. As we’ve already seen with the recent riots. While there may be legitimate sparks for social unrest, the scale and intensity are going to be magnified. It’s an incipient problem I don’t think has really been thought through.

And there are many things about the COVID-19 crisis that could have used some more thought, or more precisely: why isn’t there a plan? Everything about the response at every level seems ad hoc. Surely for what government costs, and the fact that epidemics are a Known Danger, there should be some sort of graduated response plan. With metrics and everything. Maybe there is a plan, but you wouldn’t know it as leadership seems to be half-assing things along. The ‘unprecedented’ plea is straight BS: this has happened before.

If COVID-19 is a real-deal danger, then the immediate response should have been full-force: distancing, business closing, masks, quarantine, the works. Countries in central Africa are well-versed in epidemics of much more lethal viruses. What we got was an incremental response to a disease that turns out not to be so dangerous. ‘Flattening the curve’ vis-a-vis infection rate means prolonging the response. People are experiencing ‘crisis fatigue’, and instead of fewer social restrictions, there are more. But people have a hard time admitting error, and doubly-so for those in authority. Now we are into Summer, the time when flu infection is usually at a minimum. Flu season starts in about three months, and if we’re wearing masks in July, we will be wearing them year-round. You can borrow my highlighter.

I’ve noted that we’ve shifted from Goal to Process in the COVID-19 response, and there is no timeline. The implied timeline seems to be a vaccine, and without rancor I will say that the best and brightest are putting in hours to find one. And that will be great. But what about the next virus? Is this going to be a state of ‘permanent war’ ala 1984? We’re creating a society now, and should probably give it some thought.

The Owl Is No Pussycat

I’d mentioned in the last post that an owl had been harassed out of the area by the local songbirds. The owl came back the next evening and practiced some gunboat diplomacy. Perching in a tactically advantageous position in a tree near the house, it made energetic calls for several minutes. The owl was large, in charge, and not happy. The songbirds? They were around, just not close around.

The Owl Again?!

I stepped out on the back porch about mid-morning, and saw an owl splayed on the ground. Startling, because this isn’t the usual thing 10 feet from the door. It was laying flat with wings outstretched and the head tilted back. Was it dead? Had the songbirds done the deed? The eyes were unblinking and it wasn’t moving. Owls are large birds, so I wasn’t in a hurry to poke it. After about a minute the head lolled forward, which was also startling, being dead and all. But, not dead yet, as it rolled it’s head around and made to get up.

The owl when I got my phone. It stared at me, I stared at it. Then it tilted it’s head back.

The owl was sunbathing.

That’s a Spotted Owl, by the way. Single-wingedly responsible for the collapse of the Northwest logging industry 20 years ago, because they could only live in old-growth forests. There are a few 150-year-old trees on the property, but the house was built in 1974, so everything else is younger than that. This owl has been around for three years, so new-growth looks to work just fine.

The Five Deadly Venoms

Because Kung Fu Theatre has been suspended, I’ve expanded my DVD collection. The latest acquisition was The Five Deadly Venoms Shaw Brothers 1978. This is an unusual kung-fu film in that there is very little fighting. Shaw Brothers director Cheh Chang helmed, and the film is of the usual SB quality. Except there are almost no displays of martial arts for most of the film. And no women. Shaw Brothers films are notable for the inclusion of strong female characters, but in this film, women apparently don’t exist. It’s disappointing.

Also on the down side are the early fight scenes, or what few there are. Highly scripted, they don’t come off particularly well.

But this is an engaging film. Despite my Cantonese being reduced to English subtitles, the story moves along, although the plot can be obscure at times. It sort of comes together in the end, and the payoff is some very skillful and engaging martial arts. Shaw Brothers productions highlight various styles of kung fu, and watching an SB film can be an education.

 

 

 

 

The house backs up to a ‘natural area’, in this case a creek where development is barred to a certain distance. It’s about 100 yards across the creek bed to the houses on the other side. The creek is about 15 feet below the house grade, so there’s a little bit of a landform, and wooded. The forest is literally at the back door. As are the blackberries and English Ivy, the latter of which has crested a retaining wall and is coming over the top. That assault will have to be repelled.

The bird population seems to be higher than usual this year, with at least four birds in close residence. One sparrow must have fledged best-in-nest, because every time I see this bird it has food in its beak. There is a mallard pair on the creek, and a couple of woodpeckers upstream a bit. Crows are around, but I think they commute in from elsewhere.

I noticed an unusual commotion this evening, and stepped outside to find a perched owl surrounded by agitated birds. Judging by their calls, there are three owls that use the area, but this particular one seems to have established its’ territory. And it was having a rough go.

The birds should be agitated; owls are birds of prey, and songbirds are . . . prey. Although the owl likely outmassed it’s tormentors combined, it just perched in the tree, kind of hunkered down. A few birds would make close passes, and finally chased the owl to another tree a few feet away. It sat taking verbal abuse for a few minutes, then flew off upstream. But it made clear that it would leave when it wanted to.

Anthropomorphising? I don’t know. All life works the same, and if quantum physics works, and the fact you’re reading this on a computer proves some of it does, then everything is connected.

Just watching birds on a summer evening.

Nothing weighty here, just a day off. I used to write this stuff down in a journal, but, hey, now we have the Internet!

Annual physical this morning. Still COVID-19-free. Everything else looked good, too.

“Gonna crack my knuckles and jump for joy

Got a clean bill of health from Dr. McCoy!”

The weather has become Summer-like, if hot. I’ve noted that the last 3 years we’ve had Seattle’s Summer: cool and grey until July. When I lived in Seattle, I’d tell people the rainy season lasted until you couldn’t stand it, then another month. Western Oregon used to enjoy nice weather from about June on, but the weather patterns have changed the last several years. The rain starts later in the year and lasts longer.

The main focus on the day was new shoes for the Mazda. The treads were down to 50%, which is fine for everyday driving, but not safe for the way the car is driven. In the salad days I drove on the cheapest tires I could get, but that is no bueno when you’re throwing the car around. Not just for you, but others. They are public highways. And tires are like anything else: good stuff works better.

I’d found some tires I liked, and could afford. But they were Not Available. Which seems to be the case for a lot of things lately. The shop recommended a slightly less expensive, but still name-brand, substitute. Sure. Without new tires, the car was not safe to use for its intended purpose.

Woo-Hoo! A fun car, full tank, new tires, and mountain roads a half-hour away. The year 2020 can KMA. It was 90F in Hillsboro, so I planned to drive to the coast and a cooler clime. And there are some fun roads.

US 26 West to OR 47 North and up to Vernonia. Highway 47 is a fun road, or can be, but traffic moderates fun. In the opportunities to be had, the tires held some unpleasant surprises.

The sidewalls are squishy. The tires hold the road, and will go where planted, but the sidewalls allow the car to shift over the wheel, meaning the contact area (and direction of motion) of the tires is not the same as the car’s, until the suspension adjusts. This was not even a hint of a problem with the old tires, and the first couple of hard corners I very nearly put the car in the ditch. I’ve had the Mazda a year now, and I’ve never had the suspension work so hard. After some practice, I got the feel of the tires, and could hold lines a little closer. At least not in the ditch. I’ll be talking to the tire folks, because wondering where the car is going is not something I want to worry about diving into a corner.

North on OR 47 past Vernonia to Mist, and a left toward the coast on OR 202. OR 202 is one of my favorite roads in the area. Well-maintained with challenging curves, it’s populated, but not much traffic. You do want to stay in the lane, but that’s true anyway. By this time I’d gotten accustomed to the tires, and there were sections of shoomp-shoomp-shoomp going through curves. Almost like a gocart. More shifting, though. Big smiles. Sometimes, life is fun.

West on OR 202 brings you to the back side of Astoria. I took US 101 south to US 26 East. About 20 miles east of the junction, a right on Lower Nehelem Road will eventually parallel the Nehelem River, and take you to the campsite at Lukarilla. It’s a fun road to drive, but turns to gravel not far past the campsite, so I turned around.

A last little bit of driving excitement on the way back to US 26, then east for a little over an hour to get home. Five hours and 180 miles later, still smiling.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Of the Day: The Puppet Masters Robert Heinlein 1951

Now that the COVID-19 pandemic is on the back burner, let’s take a look at the response thus far.

The first response was social distancing, intended to slow the spread of the disease enough to give medical facilities a chance to recover from the initial onslaught of cases. That was pretty well sorted by the end of April, and up until that time the strategy was containment.

Well, no one has been talking containment since early May, so that strategy has failed. Now the strategy is slowing the spread through the use of masks. And still social distancing. Now, Asia has been wearing masks for decades during flu season, because Asia is crowded, and social distancing isn’t an option. One is as effective as the other, but you don’t need both. Medical staff don’t gown up and then stand six feet away from the patient. What we have now is a society where everyone masks up and then stands away from each other. It looks, and is, ridiculous.

The more so because we’ve moved from the goal of containment to the process of mitigation. Politicians love them some process, because it is open-ended. You don’t have to commit to a definite end. In my own state of Oregon, the Governor has said she won’t permit full socialization until there is a cure or vaccine for COVID-19. Unless an effective vaccine appears in the next couple of months, and it likely won’t (trials, etc), that’s not a practical approach.

In a mitigation process, you have to determine when you’ve mitigated enough. That is, at what point is the danger low enough to end the preventive measures. If you are in government, the answer is “Never!”, but we will confine ourselves to the real world.

One metric for societal impact is incidence per 100,000 population. As of 9 June 2020 the statewide average stands at 118/100k. That sounds high, but represents a known infection rate of 0.1%. One tenth of one percent. If cases were evenly distributed throughout the population, you would have to be in a space with 1,000 people to be assured that one person had COVID-19.

So at what point is the risk of infection low enough? And even if infected, outside of narrow demographic ranges, the average person is sick for a bit and recovers. If there are complications, there are adequate medical facilities. COVID-19 is less lethal than a myriad of other diseases we don’t seem too worried about, let alone completely disrupting society. There are presumably highly-trained people who can estimate these things, but if they have some answers, they have not been forthcoming.

Nor has government been quick to rescind restrictions. One might think the loss of tax revenue alone would prompt government to lift proscriptions, but as time passes, bureaucrats and politicians seem ever more comfortable with the situation, as are Nanny State fellow travelers. I’ve noted that people generally aren’t good at assessing risk unless trained, making the situation ripe for exploitation. That 0.1% incidence rate? You don’t see that number bandied about. It’s a lot more about how everyone needs to be ‘socially responsible’. Because the thing with masks is that they don’t protect me from you, they protect you from me.

‘Socially responsible’ usually means ‘I want to control you’. Given that COVID-19 is fatal to a very small and defined population, and appears to be losing lethality, the vasty great majority of people are putting up with a not insignificant inconvenience. In itself this isn’t bad; a society should look out for its own, but it appears we are at the point of masks as social obligation more than effective mitigation.

In a pandemic people view others as a death threat. Probably the way the rest of the world views Americans. Everyone has a gun. Everyone is mistrustful, suspicious, on edge. And this is not irrational at the height of a pandemic. But not wearing a mask is perceived as putting others in danger. If they believe in the mask, they fear you. These days, by simply not wearing a mask, a person gains power. This makes people nervous. But they probably won’t physically attack you, because, you know, social distancing.

“Hey! Where’s your mask?!”

“Come say that to my face.”

But the mask thing didn’t gain traction during the height of the pandemic when it would have been most effective, and a likely more enthusiastic participation. While masks were recommended in early April, the public wasn’t really encouraged until mid-May, when the pandemic had started to ebb.

There are people who view masks as a form of social control, and I can’t say they are wrong. Want to ride mass transit? Wear a mask. Want to travel on a commercial conveyance? Wear a mask. Go into some businesses? Wear a mask. Enter a government building? You get the idea. It’s a version of the Chinese social credit system.

Which we also find ourselves past the intersection of the ‘COVID-19 Danger’ and ‘Societal Response’ curves, which puts us in ‘Mass Hysteria’ territory. This is sort of expected, as December through March were marked by ever-more breathless news reports on mass deaths from the Wuhan Whirlwind. The public perception curve started steep, and has lost considerable steam, but while flattening, isn’t yet declining.

I’m hopeful the decline will start soon, in the form of more people edging social distancing and not wearing masks. I’m trying to bring back handshakes. My clients of late don’t know from social distancing.

COVID-19 is real, is dangerous, and should be treated with respect. But it’s not a Biblical Plague, or even Marburg’s or Ebola. A lot of people have died from the disease, but the concern is for the living. As a human being, and an American, I refuse to live in fear.

Craft Project

While I had a minimum of unscheduled time off in March, work has been busy. But I have made time to work on my craft project, and look to finish this summer. I’m pretty happy with it, and it does provide much-needed diversion.

Word Watch

I was reading a hobby forum, and a regular contributor used the word ‘mensurations’. The gentleman’s native language is not English, and it was clear from context he meant ‘measurements’, but I wondered if ‘mensuration’ is a word in English.

It is. ‘The measuring of geometric magnitudes, lengths, areas, and volumes.’

The word is from the Latin (no surprise there), and usage appears to have peaked prior to 1880 (the internet is great!). And for such an obscure word, there are videos! The things you can learn.

On The Radio

Because there are no sports, I have returned to listening to the local classical and jazz stations. There are some very good programs on the jazz station. One that stands out is Jukebox Saturday Night, program by a local host that features music from the swing, jazz, and pop (with a little gospel) from the 30’s – 50’s. Of course, programming now is all over the map as far as what you’ll hear. KMHD is not doing live programming. Classical station KQAC is, so go figure.

 

 

 

If I were a Muslim woman, I’d be taking a look at Western court rulings prohibiting the wearing of hijab on the basis that identity concealment is harmful to society. Walked around town lately? Carding for age-restricted items is a joke. I’ve been in one store that doesn’t bother. Kids out of school and wearing masks? No worries there!

“But Blair, it’s a matter of public health!” No argument from me. But that’s not the point. The pandemic has made face-mask wearing socially acceptable in the West. Why should a people be legally proscribed from doing the same thing in the practice of their religion?

I’m thinking this is going to impact dating the same way herpes did in the 80’s. Will dating sites have a “Tested C-Free” option?

Nobody wants to cough in public. COVID or COPD? You make the call!

The State of Oregon made ‘single-use’ plastic bags illegal this year, after a number of communities had passed similar laws. People are expected to provide their own grocery bags or pay $0.05 per store-supplied bag.

Would anyone care to guess what has been banned in grocery stores? Customer-supplied multi-use bags. Now people are forced to use, and pay for, store plastic bags. So what could have been construed as a ‘voluntary’ tax, is now involuntary. I suppose you could take the cart home. Maybe someone should look into this.

When the state banned plastic bags, I ordered 1000 for $15. Now I walk into stores with a wad of bags. They are legally ‘single-use’, so should be permissible. A couple of people have commented that they’d wished they’d saved their bags.

Loners: Socially distant before social distancing was cool.

It seems to me there is a divide in how people are responding to the pandemic centered on about the age of 35. Younger, it’s “We need to be down with the program.” Older, more like “This is a real thing, but the response is varying degrees of BS.” I’m older than 35.

I’m a little surprised there aren’t more licensed property masks. I haven’t seen a single Darth Vader. Really?

 

 

The pandemic must be over in Oregon, because the ODOT signs that have been flashing ‘Stay Home Save Lives’ for the past two months have changed to ‘Worker Safety Month’. Washington DOT signs are still (‘Staying Home Is Saving Lives. Keep It Up WA!’) virus-oriented.

I’ve noticed the news has pretty well shifted from wall-to-wall COVID-19 to the economy, or lack thereof. Newscasters air a faint whiff of struggle for relevance on the pandemic. People where I live are kind of done with this. I think social distancing was, and is, a reasonable measure, but the last couple of weeks has been more casually observed in social spaces. Stores haven’t been in a hurry to replace worn floor markings. I was in a convenience store recently that had no preventive measures whatsoever. No floor marks, no counter shield, nothing. It was like stepping back to . . . February.

And the political sniping has begun. Heretofore everyone at least pretended to show a united front, but now political opportunism is rising. There’s also the little matter of why in the hell the pandemic is even a thing, and some really pointed questions to China. My opinion is that there is certainly a civil case to be made, even if the information available doesn’t quite make the criminal bar. Ricky Ricardo knows.

In my corner of the world, the virus has been confirmed in about 0.5% of the county population, and of those cases, about 4% have died. I didn’t look for co-morbidity factors, but based on reports earlier in the year, I’d expect there to be a good correlation. COVID-19 is here to stay, until there is a vaccine. But it is not the death-dealing assassin the media made it out to be.

The Inconvenience Factor

Doing stuff is just a lot more inconvenient than it used to be. Bank lobbies are closed. Some stores have been metering customers. While I have no problem standing in line to check-out, as an American, I will not stand in line to get in to the store. There are apps for that. I remarked to a co-worker that we had the same amount of people trying to do business in 10% of the space.

My experience with similar situations extends to the 1973-1974 Oil Crisis and 9/11. And I’ve noticed that people will tend to cut services during a crisis, and not reinstate them. But still charge the same. Post-crisis I will give my trade to businesses that did not make life harder. My advice to businesses reopening: you need to be convenient. That’s the way it was. People have had months of doing without you.

A Real-Life Transformer

Oregon Sky

I was out for a drive a few weeks ago, and a front was coming over the Coast Range. There were lenticular clouds and stationary clouds over most of the peaks, as well as a spectacular downslope jet.

That’s about 5 – 6 miles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Which I haven’t done this for a while, but one very notable event.

0030 – Scholars’ reckon Jesus crucified by Roman troops in Jerusalem

1891 – Nebraska introduces 8 hour work day

1926 – Mussolini’s Irish wife breaks his nose

1953 – 1st west-to-east jet transatlantic nonstop flight

1963 – Public stock offering of 115,000 shares in Milwaukee Braves withdrawn after only 13,000 shares are sold to 1,600 new investors

1966 – US recovers lost H-bomb from Mediterranean floor (whoops!)

Some Sky

Hillsboro evening of 1 April.

Hillsboro morning of 3 April. A little hard to see because of the light pole, but the industrial steam from Intel looked like it was adding to the overcast.